Another ticket to the Big Dance will be punched early on Saturday as the 2026 America East Tournament championship game unfolds between the top-seeded UMBC Retriever and the No. 2 seed Vermont Catamounts. UMBC is 23-8 this season with a 14-12 conference record. Vermont is 22-11 and 12-4 in the America East. These teams split their regular season matchups, each winning on their own home floor.

Tipoff from the Chesapeake Employers Insurance Arena in Baltimore is at 11 a.m. ET. The Retrievers are 3.5-point favorites, with the over/under at 136.5 in the latest UMBC vs. Vermont odds. Before making any Vermont vs. UMBC picks, check out the men's college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. Anyone following its college basketball betting advice at sportsbooks and on betting apps could have seen strong returns.    

Now, the model has simulated UMBC vs. Vermont 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and betting predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several men's college basketball odds and men's college basketball betting lines for Vermont vs. UMBC

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Top Vermont vs. UMBC predictions

After 10,000 simulations of UMBC vs. Vermont, SportsLine's model is going Over on the total (136.5 points). Vermont generally plays lower-scoring games, but UMBC puts up huge offensive numbers. The Retrievers haven't scored fewer than 84 points in their last four games, and they're coming off a 91-point effort in the semifinals. 

The model projects both teams to clear 70 points in this matchup as they combine for 149 points. The Over hits 72% of the time, making it a high-value pick from the model.

How to make UMBC vs. Vermont picks

The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Vermont vs. UMBC, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to back, all from the advanced model that has simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.