NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Simulation predicts surprising upsets, prime sleepers, March Madness picks


                        NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket: Simulation predicts surprising upsets, prime sleepers, March Madness picks
By: CBS Sports Posted On: March 18, 2026 View: 1

There are 30 schools that have their men's and women's teams in March Madness 2026. That includes heavy hitters like Duke, Kentucky and UConn, as well as mid-majors like Cal Baptist and High Point. Just twice before (UConn in 2004 and 2014) has a school won both the men's and women's championships in the same year. Dual championships would be quite an accomplishment, and the men's champion will be crowned on Monday, April 6 at the end of the March Madness bracket 2026.

While Michigan is a 2-seed on the women's side, the Wolverines are a No. 1 seed in the men's NCAA Tournament 2026. Michigan has made at least the Sweet 16 in its last six tournament appearances, but just making it to the second weekend would be a disappointment for the maize and blue. It has been 37 years since Michigan's only NCAA championship, but that won't stop many from backing the Wolverines with their 2026 March Madness picks. Before you make your 2026 NCAA Tournament predictions, see the 2026 March Madness bracket picks from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

Two years ago, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including huge wins by No. 11 Oregon over No. 6 South Carolina, No. 11 NC State over No. 6 Texas Tech, No. 10 Colorado over No. 7 Florida. Last year, SportsLine's computer simulation nailed massive upsets, including calling both 9-seeds that advanced in the first round, No. 12 Colorado State over No. 5 Memphis, and No. 6 BYU advancing to the Sweet 16. The model has beaten over 91 percent of all CBS Sports bracket players in four of the past seven tournaments.

This model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, has nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds since its inception in 2016 and nailed UConn's championship run in 2024. It nailed 12 teams in the Sweet 16 and correctly predicted all four Final Four teams a year ago.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered conference tournament week on a sizzling 14-2 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-21 run on top-rated CBB side picks. You shouldn't even think about making a pick without seeing what their model has to say.

Top 2026 March Madness bracket upset picks

One South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 9 Iowa defeats No. 8 Clemson in the first round. The Tigers limp into this matchup, going 4-6 over their last 10 games after posting a 20-4 mark over their first 24 games. Offensive issues have been a big reason why as just five NCAA tourney teams average fewer points than Clemson's 74.1. It also doesn't generate second-chance opportunities as the Tigers are dead last in the ACC in offensive rebounds per game.

Iowa's stifling defense will make it all the more difficult for Clemson as the Hawkeyes lead the Big Ten in points allowed per game. On offense, Iowa is efficient, ranking 21st nationally in field goal percentage. It also does the little things exceptionally well, which often go overlooked but are huge factors in winning and losing. Iowa ranks among the top 30 teams in both free throw percentage and turnovers per game, with those areas often coming to the forefront in clutch situations. 

Another South Region surprise the model has identified: No. 5 Vanderbilt over No. 4 Nebraska to advance to the Sweet 16. The Huskers are having one of their best seasons ever, going 26-6 overall and finishing tied for second in the Big Ten at 15-5. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, is 26-8 overall and tied for fourth in the SEC at 11-7. The Commodores made it to the SEC Tournament championship game, where they lost 86-75 to Arkansas.

Nebraska appears to be trending in the wrong direction. After starting the season 20-0, the Cornhuskers have gone just 6-6 since, including a 20-point loss at UCLA on March 3. They fell 74-58 to eventual champion Purdue in the Big Ten Conference Tournament quarterfinals. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, appears to be on a roll, having won four of its last five games, including three of those games coming against ranked opponents. See which other 2026 March Madness upsets and matchups to target here.

How to make 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket predictions

Who wins every tournament-defining matchup? And which teams will make surprising runs through the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket? With the model's track record of calling bracket-busting upsets, you'll want to see which stunners it's calling this year before locking in any 2026 NCAA bracket picks.

So what's the optimal NCAA Tournament 2026 bracket? And which NCAA Tournament Cinderella teams will shock college basketball? Visit SportsLine now to see which region features two mammoth upsets in the first round, including one by a No. 14 seed, and see which 6-seed makes the Sweet 16, all from the model that's nailed 25 first-round upsets by double-digit seeds.

Read this on CBS Sports
  About

Omnixia News is your intelligent news aggregator, delivering real-time, curated headlines from trusted global sources. Stay informed with personalized updates on tech, business, entertainment, and more — all in one place..