Global Markets Dip as Traders Gauge Fallout From U.S. Strikes on Iran

Global Markets Dip as Traders Gauge Fallout From U.S. Strikes on Iran

Any disruption to tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz would have significant economic effects, especially for Asian nations dependent on oil from the Middle East.

Stocks edged lower and oil prices climbed on Monday, reflecting investor concern over potential economic fallout from the U.S. strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend.

Markets in Asia and Europe were down. Stocks in Taipei, Taiwan, fell 1.5 percent. Benchmark indexes in Japan and South Korea also dipped. The Euro Stoxx 50 index, which comprises the eurozone’s largest companies, was down 0.3 percent in early trading.

The price of West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for U.S. crude oil, gained roughly 3 percent. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, also rose. Futures contracts for the S&P 500, indicating how the index might perform when markets open in New York, were unchanged.

Traders were waiting for clearer indications of whether there would be an escalation in conflicts in the Middle East — particularly any moves by Iran that might disrupt oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical transit point for global oil supplies. Last year, about 20 million barrels of oil were shipped through the waterway each day, representing about 20 percent of the world’s total supply. Most of that oil was bound for Asia.

Places like Japan and Taiwan rely on the Middle East for almost all of their crude oil imports, meaning that any disruption to traffic through the passageway could inflict a large economic blow. China is the largest purchaser of Iranian oil.

Oil prices, hovering around $76 a barrel, are expected to reach $80, but if the risk of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz increases, so will the price of oil, said Takahide Kiuchi, executive economist at Nomura Research Institute. In that case, “the Japanese economy could be exposed to downside risks that exceed those of the Trump tariffs,” he said.

Other analysts expect fallout from the U.S. strikes to be relatively short-lived.

The oil market is better equipped to respond to shocks than it has been in the past because of spare capacity held by exporters, according to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ Research. Geopolitical events involving producers can have a big impact on oil markets, but in recent years, prices have tended to quickly retreat as risks ease, Mr. Hynes said.

Daniel Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said there could be more volatility in stock movements this week. But, he said, the market may view the Iran threat as “now gone.” In that case, he said, “the worst is now in the rearview mirror.”

Joe Rennison contributed reporting from New York.

Read this on New York Times Business
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