The 2026 National Invitational Tournament has also reached its final four teams, with the NIT semifinal matchups taking place on Thursday. The New Mexico Lobos (26-10) will take on the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (29-7) in the first semifinal, with the winner then facing the victor of Auburn-Illinois State. The Lobos have won all three of their 2026 NIT games by 15-plus points, most recently knocking off Saint Joseph's, 84-69, in the quarters. Tulsa is aiming for its second 30-win season in program history and is coming off an 83-79 quarterfinal win over Wichita State.

Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET from Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis. Tulsa has won two NIT championships, while UNM is seeking its first. The Lobos are 3.5-point favorites in the latest Tulsa vs. New Mexico odds, while the over/under is 160.5. Before making any New Mexico vs. Tulsa picks, check out the Tulsa vs. New Mexico predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every college basketball game 10,000 times. It entered the 2026 Final Four on a sizzling 11-1 run on its top-rated over/under college basketball picks dating back to last season, and is on a 28-22 run on top-rated CBB side picks. 

Now, the model has simulated Tulsa vs. New Mexico 10,000 times and just revealed its college basketball picks and NIT predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several college basketball odds and college basketball lines for New Mexico vs. Tulsa:

Top New Mexico vs. Tulsa predictions

After 10,000 simulations of Tulsa vs. New Mexico, SportsLine's model is going Under on the total (160.5 points). The Lobos' games have gone under in two straight and in three out of the last four. In all postseason contests for New Mexico since 2023, which includes conference tournament, NCAA tourney and NIT games, the Under sports an 11-2 record. Meanwhile, Tulsa has seen the Under go 4-2 at neutral sites this season.

While Tulsa has an elite offense, New Mexico can take away what the Golden Hurricane does best, and that's connect from downtown. UNM ranks 12th in the country in 3P defense, holding opponents to just 30% from beyond the arc. On the other end of the court, New Mexico sometimes struggles with its shot, ranking outside the top 100 teams in field goal percentage, 2P percentage and FT percentage. The model doesn't forecast any player to reach 16 points in this semifinal as the Under hits in 55.9% of simulations. You can get the spread pick at SportsLine.

How to make Tulsa vs. New Mexico picks

Now, the model simulated every possession of New Mexico vs. Tulsa 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only see that pick at SportsLine.

So who wins New Mexico vs. Tulsa, and which side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Tulsa vs. New Mexico spread to back, all from the advanced model that just simulated this game 10,000 times, and find out.