Joey Chestnut is back to reclaim the coveted Mustard Belt that he never truly lost at the 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest. The world's most recognizable eater was suspended from last year's Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest after signing a sponsorship deal with one of Nathan's competitors, which resulted in someone other than Chestnut winning the popular Fourth of July competitive eating event from Coney Island for just the second time over the last 18 years. 

Patrick Bertoletti won last year's event, but with Chestnut back, he is listed at +1200 while Chestnut is an overwhelming -2000 favorite in the latest 2025 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest odds. Given Chestnut's dominance, betting sites are offering markets without Chestnut, similar to PGA betting without Scottie Scheffler, and there, Bertoletti is the +155 favorite in the latest Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest 2025 odds.

This year, more sportsbooks are providing the option to bet on this renowned hot dog-eating competition, including Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM.

On the women's side, Miki Sudo will be vying for her fourth consecutive title and 11th in 12 years. The 39-year-old New Yorker set the new women's record in the Nathan's contest last year, when she devoured 51 hot dogs and buns. Her biggest competition likely will come from Michelle Lesco, who took the crown in Sudo's absence due to her pregnancy in 2021.

SportsLine expert Matt Severance has revealed his analysis, picks and predictions for this year's competition. Severance is a well-connected writer and high-volume handicapper who has worked in the industry since 2005. After joining SportsLine, he quickly established himself as a top expert in multiple sports. Here's his breakdown of the contest:

A sporting staple of the July 4 holiday -- if you consider competitive eating a sport, which I do not -- is the Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest held outside the original Nathan's location in Coney Island in New York. The women's contest starts Friday at 11 a.m. ET and the men's closer to 12:30 p.m. The men's and women's champions receive $10,000 apiece.

What's new this year on the ESPN telecast is "cams" for top competitors Miki Sudo on the women's side and Joey Chestnut on the men's. During the event, participants must eat as many Nathan's Famous hot dogs in buns as they can within a 10-minute period. Water and other beverages are permitted to help wash things down. Condiments are allowed, but I can't recall a contestant ever using one.

Chestnut's return is the major story this year, as he's the biggest star in the sport and a 16-time champion of this event, including consecutively from 2016-23. "Jaws" was banned from the 2024 contest after he signed a deal with Impossible Foods that called for him to endorse the company's plant-based hot dogs.

Nathan's understandably viewed that as direct competition to its all-beef product. Chestnut has since agreed to endorse only Nathan's hot dogs. The Joey Chestnut record of eating 76 hot dogs was set in 2021, when the contest was relocated elsewhere in the New York area due to capacity restrictions and other health and safety protocols following the Covid pandemic.

The odds that the record of 76 is broken this year are at +215, with No set at -275, and I recommend No. With Chestnut sidelined last year, Patrick "Deep Dish" Bertoletti won the competition with a personal-best mark of 58 hot dogs eaten.

There's really no point betting Chestnut at -2000 to win, so a better solution would be Bertoletti at +155 in the Winner Without Chestnut market. Bertoletti's over/under is set at 51.5 hot dogs and he is -160 head-to-head against James Webb (+130), who ate 52 last year.

Most books don't even offer odds on the women's winner because Sudo is the Joey Chestnut of that gender. Sudo holds the women's world record of 51 hot dogs eaten last year, when she won the Nathan's title for the 10th time. 

However, Sudo didn't top 42 hot dogs while winning the previous two years, so I like Under 45.5 for her on Friday at -105. I'd also recommend Nick Wehry at -165 head-to-head against Sudo (+130), who happens to be his wife.