The Mystery of Trump’s 25% Tariff Threat on Kazakhstan

The Mystery of Trump’s 25% Tariff Threat on Kazakhstan

When President Trump announced tariffs in April, officials in Kazakhstan were surprised to see their country on the list.

Kazakhstan, a resource-rich country that borders Russia and China, does a minimal amount of trade with the United States. And based on how Kazakh government officials interpreted Mr. Trump’s new policies, more than 90 percent of its exports to the United States would be exempt from the tariff. Still, it said it was ready to negotiate the terms of trade with Washington.

Then this week, Kazakhstan was one of nearly two dozen countries to receive nearly identical warning letters from Mr. Trump. Strike a deal by Aug. 1 or face a 25 percent tariff, the letter directed.

The aggressive approach by the Trump administration is a bit of a turnabout for Kazakhstan. American officials have spent much of the last decade promising money and support to prod the country to open up its economy, especially mining.

Historically, the United States was a major investor in Kazakhstan, primarily for oil and gas development. American investment in the country peaked a few years ago in 2022, and it has been trending lower since.

In more recent years, mining companies from the United States and other countries have been looking for ways to tap Kazakhstan’s minerals. In 2024, the Kazakh government issued more than 50 percent more mining exploration licenses than in the previous year.

People are buying bananas at a fruit stand.
Chang W. Lee/The New York Times

Kazakhstan is a potential hotbed for the critical minerals and rare earth metals that are essential in making electric vehicles and other cutting-edge products. The world’s supply of these materials, which the United States desperately needs, is dominated by Chinese companies.

“Many in the region saw the U.S. as a potential counterbalance to their giant neighbors, China and Russia. Now, that good will risks souring,” said Teniz Capital, a Kazakh investment bank, in a note to its clients. “As the United States raises barriers, China and Russia are poised to capitalize on Central Asia’s search for stable partners.”

The tariffs will apply to less than $100 million worth, or about 5 percent, of products from Kazakhstan, according to Teniz Capital.

In a statement on Tuesday, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration said it had sent the Trump administration specific proposals and initiatives aimed at mutually improving the trade relationship. The ministry said the United States was reviewing its proposals and would set a date for negotiation.

In a response to a request for comment, a White House official noted that Mr. Trump’s executive order on the tariffs exempted certain sectors, though the official said exempted items could be subject to future tariffs.

The view of the skyline in Astana, Kazakhstan. There is a river and bridge in the photo.
Pavel Mikheyev/Reuters

In the first five months of this year, Kazakhstan ran a trade deficit with the United States, importing twice as much in American goods as it exported, the ministry said. Kazakhstan was the only Central Asian country to be threatened with additional tariffs, which the Trump administration argues are needed to right unfair trade imbalances.

While Kazakhstan said its main exports to the United States, such as uranium, ferroalloys, silver and oil, were not subject to the tax, it faces other trade threats from Washington.

Mr. Trump said on Tuesday that the United States would impose a 50 percent tariff on imports of copper, a critical metal that is mined in Kazakhstan.

In addition, Kazakhstan is a partner in BRICS, a consortium of major emerging economies founded by China, Russia, Brazil, India and other countries. Mr. Trump has accused the group of promoting anti-American policies and pledged to tack an extra 10 percent tariff onto any country aligned with BRICS.

Kazakhstan has long been known for its reserves of uranium, gold and other metals. This year, the government also announced the discovery of a large deposit of rare earth minerals. If confirmed, the deposit would make Kazakhstan home to one of the world’s largest reserves of rare earths, over which China exercises near monopoly control.

A port with shipping containers, cargo ships and cranes.
Chang W. Lee/The New York Times

Its proximity to China and Russia puts Kazakhstan in a delicate strategic balancing act. Not wanting to become overly reliant on either of its powerful neighbors, Kazakhstan pursues European and North American investors to help finance economic development. But it aims to not alienate Moscow or Beijing.

Kazakhstan is already deepening its economic ties with China, its neighbor to the east. Last month, the country announced that it had agreed to cooperate with China in a wide range of areas including energy, aerospace, agriculture and e-commerce. For Kazakhstan, trade volume with China is already ten times that of the United States.

After meeting with China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, the president of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, stated that the relationship between the two countries had entered a golden era, saying Beijing had not attached political conditions to its cooperation.

Major global investors had shied away from investing in Kazakhstan’s mining industry because of concerns about corruption and political instability. But a new set of investment-friendly standards in 2018, and a regime change shortly after, opened the door to growing foreign interest.

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