Free MLB home run picks, odds for September 4: Kyle Schwarber among best bets for Thursday HR player props

By: CBS Sports Posted On: September 04, 2025 View: 0

Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber is one home run away from 50 this season, ranked second in the MLB behind Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh. Schwarber homered four times against the Braves last Thursday, but he has not gone yard since then. Philadelphia is facing Milwaukee at 4:10 p.m. ET during the Thursday MLB schedule, with Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta (16-5, 2.58 ERA) on the mound. Schwarber only has three hits in 17 career plate appearances against Peralta, but two of those hits were home runs.

He is +240 to homer in the latest Thursday MLB odds, and that is one of the MLB HR bets that SportsLine's Inside the Lines team is targeting. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine's proven computer model can help you find value for your MLB betting picks. New users can also use the latest bet365 bonus code to receive $300 in bonus bets instantly after your first $5 wager, and take advantage of one of the best sportsbook promos:

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It's up 56.3 units on its individual MLB HR picks this season after nailing Daulton Varsho (+340) and Manny Machado (+350) to homer on Wednesday. It has called two three-leg parlays paying at least 80-1 this season. Now, the model and SportsLine's team of Data Scientists have revealed their betting projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Thursday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Thursday, September 4:

MLB Best Home Run Bets 9/4

For more real-time, free picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.

Kyle Manzardo, Guardians (+420, FanDuel)

Manzardo is facing the organization that traded him to Cleveland, which always adds a bit of extra motivation. He's hit 9 HRs in 38 games during the second half of the season. Notably, Manzardo has a 1.007 OPS in wins compared to just .520 in losses—so a parlay with the Guardians to win could be worth considering. We set Manzardo's line at +385 to homer. Use the latest FanDuel promo code to receive $300 in bonus bets if your first wager of $5+ wins:

Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+240, DraftKings)

Schwarber has cooled off since his 4-HR game last week, with just 2 hits in his last 5 games, so we're buying low here. He's 3-13 in his career against Freddy Peralta, but 2 of those hits were home runs and the other was a double. We set Schwarber's line at +220 to homer. New users can also get $300 in bonus bets instantly after their first $5 wager as well as over $200 off on NFL Sunday Ticket with the latest DraftKings bonus offer:

Zach Neto, Angels (+420, FanDuel)

Noah Cameron has looked shakier in recent starts, allowing 4 HRs over his last three outings after a dominant start to his career. Neto has just a .234 average over the past month, but 9 of his 22 hits have been home runs. He's also been dangerous as a leadoff hitter, with 9 leadoff HRs this season. Cameron has struggled against leadoff hitters, allowing a .333 average and .961 OPS. We set Neto's line at +385 to homer. Bet this prop at FanDuel and get $300 in bonus bets if your first wager of $5+ wins:.