2025 Heisman Trophy odds, Week 2 outlook: Garrett Nussmeier leads race early, John Mateer faces tall task


                        2025 Heisman Trophy odds, Week 2 outlook: Garrett Nussmeier leads race early, John Mateer faces tall task
By: CBS Sports Posted On: September 05, 2025 View: 0

Expectations for Arch Manning were sky-high entering his first season as the Texas starting quarterback, but like most first-time starters in Week 1, the former top-ranked recruit battled through some significant growing pains. The preseason Heisman Trophy favorite suddenly has heaps of ground to make up after he ceded frontrunner status to LSU's Garrett Nussmeier.

Those stars from the top-10 matchups were far from the only Heisman hopefuls to make statements, for better or worse, in college football's loaded opening week. The race for the sport's highest individual honor could not be more wide open with so much season left to be played, but every game counts, and each data point has long-term implications in the process of determining who hoists the trophy in December.

The upcoming Week 2 slate is significantly lighter on marquee matchups, but that does not mean the next batch of games is unimportant in defining the road to glory. The strongest Heisman contenders go above and beyond regardless of their opponent, and quite a few of this year's hopefuls have an opportunity this week to pad their stats against inferior foes.

College Football QB Power Rankings: Arch Manning falls from top 50, TCU's Josh Hoover ascends to No. 1 spot

David Cobb

College Football QB Power Rankings: Arch Manning falls from top 50, TCU's Josh Hoover ascends to No. 1 spot

With one week of action in the books, here is a snapshot of the Heisman Trophy picture. Odds below per FanDuel Sportsbook

Heisman Trophy odds entering Week 2

Stock up: Nussmeier the early favorite

He did not have far to climb given that he opened the year with the second-best Heisman odds, but Nussmeier made that modest leap into early pole position for the award with his game-winning effort in one of the biggest matchups of Week 1. The second-year LSU starter and reigning SEC completions leader went 28-for-38 for 230 yards and a touchdown against Clemson and capped off his night with what proved to be the decisive score: an 8-yard touchdown pass to Trey'Dez Green.

Nussmeier entered the Tigers vs. Tigers clash tied with Clemson's Cade Klubnik on the odds board and gained meaningful separation from him with a noticeably better performance. Stacking up ranked wins like that one would not only keep the potential first-round pick in front of the Heisman pack, but it would also finally cement LSU as a real national championship contender in Year 4 of the Brian Kelly era.

The early stages of the season allow for big leaps up the odds board, and it was a good week to be a victorious quarterback. Utah dazzled in a rout of UCLA, and dual-threat transfer Devon Dampier looked the part of a quarterback who could lead his team to a Big 12 title. He misfired just four times on 25 pass attempts, ran for 87 yards and found the end zone three times -- twice through the air and once on the ground. The market loved what it saw. Dampier's Heisman odds improved twofold from +5000 to +2500 in the matter of just one game.

Dampier was the most dramatic riser, but a bevy of other quarterbacks made leaps worthy of recognition, too. Georgia's Gunner Stockton passed for two touchdowns and ran for two more to become the second-steepest climber behind Dampier. John Mateer, Carson Beck and Jackson Arnold all lived up to their transfer hype at their respective schools. LaNorris Sellers looked like a certified playmaker for South Carolina. And the Dante Moore era is off and running at Oregon in style.

Stock down: Defensive battle hurts Manning, Ohio State

The Manning hype dwindled quickly. He and the Texas offense are far, far away from being a lost cause, though. One bad game against what may very well be the best defense in college football should not be cause for massive concern, particularly because it came on the road in Manning's first outing as a full-time starter. His poor timing and head-scratching overthrows and underthrows do not have to define his season.

On the other side of that No. 1 vs. No. 3 showdown, it was not as though Ohio State's individual standouts got off to a hot start, either. Julian Sayin looked very much like a redshirt freshman making his first career start against an equally formidable defense, and for the second time in as many years, Jeremiah Smith was only a modest factor against the Longhorns. Neither bolstered their Heisman candidacy despite what was a gargantuan team result.

Heisman voters will want to see more from Cade Klubnik the rest of the year, too. While he seemed down the stretch of the 2024 season to assuage the concerns surrounding his performance against top competition, he faltered in his first test of 2025. The 50% completion rate and interception he logged against LSU were reminiscent of his struggles against Georgia a year ago and Notre Dame the season prior.

Texas quarterback Arch Manning is no longer the Heisman favorite after last week's loss to Caleb Downs and Ohio State. Getty Images

Week 2 performances to watch

Last week was a treat with its flock of top-25 matchups. Week 2 is, um, a bit lighter on big-time showdowns. No. 15 Michigan and No. 18 Oklahoma will take center stage in a game that carries significant Heisman implications, though.

John Mateer vs. Michigan

Okay, John Mateer, you ripped an FCS defense to shreds. Now show us what you have against almighty Michigan. Mateer's Oklahoma debut was historic. He set the school record for most passing yards in a debut with 392 against Illinois State to go with three touchdowns, 24 rushing yards and another score on the ground. But the looming Wolverines are about as different of a beast as there is in college football. This is exactly the kind of game that Brent Venables brought Mateer in from Washington State for, and it is precisely the type of all-eyes-on-me opportunity he needs to make a statement in front of Heisman voters.

Dante Moore vs. Oklahoma State

Dante Moore's last start against a Power Four opponent came in Nov. 2023, and he threw two interceptions in that game. This week will show how much growth he made in his developmental year at Oregon. Another good outing to open his starting stint with the Ducks would be a solid first step in proving he is a different player from the one that began his career at UCLA as an underwhelming five-star freshman. Oklahoma State's is a nice, soft defense to help him ease into Power Four action.

Sam Leavitt vs. Mississippi State

Arizona State heads to SEC country for the second leg of a home-and-home with Mississippi State -- the one opponent that truly had Sam Leavitt's number in 2024. The Bulldogs were the only team to hold the breakout star to fewer than 150 yards and one of just three to keep him out of the end zone through the air. Now, he did set a career high with two rushing scores in the win, but 69 passing yards against Mississippi State? That Mississippi State? The trendy Heisman dark horse needs a better effort in the rematch.

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